Hellmuth Needs to Hit the Aria Jackpot to Win Negreanu Prop Bet

In a week that has seen poker legends Daniel Negreanu and Phil Hellmuth clash over just how impressive, or otherwise, the Poker Brat’s tournament record really is, let’s take a look at who really beasts the Super High Roller tournaments in Vegas.

While most of us would require a jackpot win to even contemplate playing the $25k entry fees for the Aria SHRs under discussion – and if you’re feeling lucky, you can click here and try out that approach – for the best players in the world the buy-in money isn’t really an issue.

Hellmuth has accepted odds of 2-1 that he can show a profit over 50 of the SHRs ($1.25million in buy-ins) at the Vegas casino, with a $400k payoff if he wins. That might not be as easy as the 15-time WSOP bracelet winner thinks it will be, however, when you look at some of the opposition he’ll be up against.

If we take even just the top 5 in cashes at the Aria’s biggest events, you have Jake Schindler, Brian Rast, Justin Bonomo, David Peters and Cary Katz to deal with.

This quintet of poker greats account for more than $55million in Aria tournament money, and they are far from the only ones chasing the pot of gold that appears several times every month.

Sam Soverel has 46 cashes to his name, and English pro Stephen Chidwick has 34, and with only three hitting the money on average each time the SHRs run, it’s a lot easier to lose money than show a profit.

Hellmuth only has to show $1 profit to win his prop bet with Negreanu, and there is no time limit for him to complete the 50-event challenge.

At the moment he stands in 31st place on the Aria’s all-time money-winners list, with $2,778,435 in cashes, one spot ahead of Alex Foxen and one behind Matthias Eibinger.

Not bad for someone who doesn’t specialize in the big buy-in tournaments, but again you only have to look at some of the names ahead of him to start worrying about the bet.

Sean Winter, Koray Aldemir, Ali Imsirovic, Conor Drinan and Adrian Mateos – all ahead of Phil and not even in the top 20. Ike Haxton, Erik Seidel, Jason Koon and Bryn Kenney – not even in the top 10. And Daniel Negreanu himself sitting on $4,159,180 of Aria cashes in 19th place.

Of course, it’s not that Hellmuth doesn’t know how to win tournaments, his record shows he can lift titles better than anyone - at a certain level.

Negreanu tweeted out, “For a guy who thinks he can beat $25k and higher buy in events against the world’s best players, the record doesn’t show any such thing,” listing the four big cashes that Phil does have on his resume.

However, as DNegs stated: “Not a single cash in the modern era of high stakes tourneys. Not one. Phil is decent in low and mid stakes tournaments, but on the major league high roller circuit, he cannot win. He may have been a GOAT of his era, but that era is long gone.”

Time will tell if the Poker Brat’s ‘White Magic’ can mix it with the modern-day GTO-fed nosebleed pros, but it’s a big, big ask, even for a legend like Hellmuth. Good luck at the Aria tables Phil, we have a feeling you’re going to need it!